Analysts still fighting over whether the worst is over

The market is in a unprecedented position.

A few things

First, the array of central bank interventions has been substantially “institutionalised” since the 2008 crisis. They’ve simply rolled out many of the same things again. That’s been reassuring to many.

Second, the consumer market has matured a lot. I certainly know one older investor who sold in 2009 (shouldn’t have done) and is now more “pacific” about the market and, this time, is riding it out. Impressionistic, sure, but I think people simply are used to the “bad times”, so less likely to overreact.

Third, short term, it’s grim, but forecasters for some reason insist on believing we could be out on the other side in months… Dream on.

Whether there’s a second dip depends largely on factors outside anyone’s control. I think people are banking on a swift recovery soon, because the alternative is unthinkable… Human nature

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