Ngl man this is hurting me a lot, it’d be interesting to see how the UK works after this though. Maybe a NI/RoI split with England becoming halved in size kek
I’m from Northern Ireland so a border is completely unacceptable to me. I don’t see how it would even be possible as no one there would have anything to do with it.
I mean the government is probably just going to say “tough shit”. I personally think the whole thing is a bag of arse tbh, it’s not going well for us and we should be able to change our mind as a country assuming that the ECJ (European Court of Justice) agrees that we can unilaterally cancel Brexit
Running through the various scenarios for the govt right now is either pretty scary or hilarious, depending on whether or not you are drunk.
The problem is the PM has to answer to four sets of people with competing views. a) her cabinet, b) her party, c) Parliament and d) the public.
All four has the power to directly or indirectly kill the process, her premiership or both.
1) Follow the ardent Brexiteers, play hardball and be prepared to leave with nothing.
Pros: Initially has support of her wider party members
Cons: Wouldn’t get through Parliament, Failure here leads pound in freefall sets in place a chain of events that leads to fall of govt and General Election, She’d be unlikely to win on the back of failure (anything after a GE is beyond prediction). Party support evaporates, (UK) Union enters crisis. UK remains divided. Recession likely.
2) Says she’s unable to get a bill through and opts to remain
Pros: Short term financial stability, avoids recession.
Cons: Things could not go back to how they were pre-vote. There would likely be civil unrest as UK division crisis worsens. Party moves against her, PM’s out. New PM has no mandate and no majority, has to call General Election to govern. Winning is 50/50.
Outcome: P45s all round.
3) 2nd referendum
Pros: Gives the politicians a way out that puts any ‘fault’ back onto the public
Cons: Undermines confidence in democratic process, exacerbates division in an already divided UK. Vote could go either way, equivalent of flipping coin. Whoever loses will likely be unable to accept result. Possibility of civil unrest, depending on outcome. PM would have to campaign for either the deal she negotiated but nobody wants or remain - either way her support evaporates. Depending on who she campaigns for and what the result is, she’d be done. Recession and General Election are possibilities.
Outcome: P45 likely
4) Continuing with the withdrawal process under current or similar deal
Pros: She pisses everybody off equally, has some chance of avoiding recession.
Cons: She pisses everybody off, she is either ousted by her party now or they fail and she loses election.
Outcome: P45 possible in short term, odds-on at election if not.
I do not think there is now a scenario that doesn’t end in failure.
Essentially she’s at the casino and nobody’s told her there’s a magnet under the roulette table.
Option 4 is my guess. It will fail to get through the house on the first count. MPs will stare at the abyss and vote it through on the second count. It is a lousy option but there we are. May is finished whatever happens. The Conservatives cannot afford her to front another election.
You forgot civil unrest here also. To be honest every option will lead to civil unrest. People say that if they feel the democratic process has failed them, it may lead to civil unrest. Well, Leave campaign broke voting laws and lied on their entire campaign. I don’t feel like that’s very democratic if we can’t turn around and go “that was a bag of arse let’s see what people think now”. I’m convinced if the people’s vote etc is thrown out of the window properly, it would end up in mass civil unrest.
One of the problems you have is that pre-vote the Remain campaign said: ‘If we leave we are out of everything - a step into the dark’ while the Brexit campaign said: ‘If we leave we can stay in the common market. Look at Norway, etc.’
Post-vote they’ve swapped position:
Brexit: ‘Leave means leave - people voted to leave everything’
Remain: ‘People voted to leave the EU, but we can remain opted into other agreements. The common market, the EEA need to be on the table… We need to stay close to our neighbours’
We are truly down the rabbit hole.
I don’t think civil unrest is a foregone conclusion in any scenario. It’s a possibility in all, more likely in some than others. Maybe we shouldn’t scrap BoJo’s water cannon, just in case.
There’s evidence of untruths being told on both sides. There’s little evidence we have a robust system to prevent or publish utter lies being told to sway the electorate.
You can get into a lot of trouble if you’re a pharma company and you put up a billboard saying your new pill will guarantee a long life and good health. If you’re a political party and you put up a billboard promising a free unicorn to every household the ASA can’t touch you.
It is a mess but I wouldn’t be so sure about the civil unrest.
In fact, compared to many other countries, Britain proved itself relatively immune to succumbing to the will of folks with pitchforks.
It is not really in the nature of the people in this land to go out en masse and start hanging politicians on lamposts
Immune? We were certainly not immune in 2011.
There were the student protests (infiltrated by fighty-types) that lead to Millbank being smashed up, followed by a week of good-old-fashioned rioting in London and Birmingham.
Perhaps ‘civil disobedience’ is a better term to sum up the (potential) risk, though.
That would include events like the 2001 fuel protests, etc.
You are right but these were small scale protests, even when compared to the Occupy movement actions in the US or other countries in the world.
Annoyingly, these protests in the UK brought no change. Instead, we were given austerity policies which destroyed public services of this country and brought many people to the brink of suicide…
I agree with civil disobedience!
The thing I find interesting is that there only seems to be presumption of the possibility of this from one outcome. All along I saw a great deal of “If Brexit doesn’t happen there will be outrage, people will take to the streets.”, perhaps to scare people into making it happen. Nothing about the absolute rage I see from people who are horrified at the potential if we were to leave with no deal, or even leave at all.
I think there’s a distinction.
Some scenarios could lead to near-immediate (over)reaction to events with civil disobedience a possibility.
Other scenarios could lead to economic problems which, if left unchecked, could then lead to civil disobedience too.
Nobody looking on the bright side - all doom & gloom. Let people have what they voted for. Britain is only enmeshed in th EU because of its proximity, time to rejoin the bigger world.
If there is only darkness, where does one see light?
I mean, yeah that’s fair, but half of the voters didn’t understand all of the shit that would be affected. Most are just “reee I dislike EU immigration policies”. They didn’t likely know about the shit when it comes to issues with the Irish border and Gibraltar. When you only vote on 1/50 of the issues, can you really say the people want this? Or could we have appeased everyone by telling the EU we want to opt-out? We’ve had lots of opt-outs already. The Euro, the 48 hour max work week et al.